Thinking about risk and prediction recently, especially after listening to Talking Politics on Superforecasters. The takeaway from that was that the more you can distance yourself emotionally from the outcome, the better you are likely to be at both estimating probabilities and adjusting them in the light of new information.

There’s more ➢

We’re almost a week into the lockdown here, and until Saturday morning there was almost no change from my normal life. Work from home? Check. See hardly any living souls in the flesh? Check. The new rules made life a little difficult. The lack of a morning cappuccino is hard, but bearable. Standing two metres apart outside the supermarket and the small local grocery stores likewise. As I’ve told anyone who’ll listen, the Italians are demonstrating the pure Blitz Spirit while my fellow Brits are pure Dad’s Army.

There’s more ➢

It has been three weeks now since I first ran Bise on my logfiles to see who and what had been popping in here to take a look. It’s a bit of a faff, for a whole variety of reasons, which start with my host keeping only a couple of days worth of logs. That means I have to download the logs daily. And my host’s naming convention is different from the one Bise expects. Rather than play with Bise, it is easier to rename the files. And then there's a whole lot of to-ing and fro-ing.

There’s more ➢

Yesterday, I came home from a walk, during which the person who helps clean the house was cleaning the house, to discover the groovy lights under my keyboard breathing heavily.

I have never shown the slightest interest in the groovy lights under my keyboard. I’m not even sure I knew they existed. This was odd.

There’s more ➢

Very strange, but for two days straight my log files have not shown anyone coming here for a post that couldn't be found. Is this a sign of success, or of increasing irrelevance?

Anyway, I did eventually find something that couldn't be found, and brought it in. And it triggered all sorts of nost...

There’s more ➢