🎧 Superforecasting

Episode summary: We talk to David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, about the science of forecasting. Who or what are the superforecasters? How can they help governments make better decisions? And will intelligent machines ever be able to outdo the humans at seeing into the future? From Cummings to coronavirus, a conversation about the knowns, unknowns and what lies beyond that. Talking Points: Tetlock discovered that some people make better predictions than others. - Some of the qualities that make this possible are deeply human, such as doggedness, determinedness, and openness to new information, but others are mathematical. - Superforecasters are highly numerate: they have a sense of magnitude. Good superforecasters isolate themselves emotionally from the problem: you have to be cold about it. - Think about George Soros shorting the pound. There’s a difference between having more superforecasting and more superforecasters. - How do you integrate people like this into existing institutions? -…